Election Predictions

Clearly I LOVE Election Day for a completely different reason than the majority of people I talked with over the last week. For them Election Day “finally brings an end to the negative ads, I am sick of them………..” A little advice to these people – please re-read the First Amendment to our Constitution which protects free speech. Yes, you might be sick of the ads but we do live in what is truly the great democracy in the world which provides us with extensive political and consumer freedoms.

On a secondary note, given the prevalence of Tivo and DVRs I am surprised that anyone actually sees today’s political campaign ads but perhaps it is much like a car accident – we don’t want to see what happened but our dark, morbid side always turns our head to look at the accident as we continue driving. Finally, if you don’t like the ads please run for political office yourself which is a relatively easy thing to do at the city council or school board level to get your career in public service started.

Here in Minnesota there was one candidate with extremely good, detailed campaign ads – the problem though was that this candidate for the US House, Obi Sium, has very little campaign money and no help apparently from the Republican Party so his ads are only on radio although I may have missed a TV ad if he has one but this just seems impossible that he could afford TV time. I have never met Mr. Sium but he has a fantastic “rags to riches” story (http://www.siumforcongress.com/) focused on “achieving the American Dream” but unfortunately his district will send the same person back to Congress – Betty McCollum – to tax and spend more for our “benefit.”

Now on to today’s elections!! I am offering the following predictions on today’s results so I can benchmark myself later this week as the vote totals are finalized so here we go:

Nicaragua -- yes a wild card I threw in to get things started. Not a prediction here, just an observation, since it has already been noted in the media today that it appears former Sandinista leader/communist Daniel Ortega is the projected winner of Nicaragua’s presidential election. Amazing that re-branded communists continue to get elected to public office!!

President of the USA -- this is an easy one, President Bush will stay in office until January 2009!! :-)

US Senate - this is the most difficult prediction for me but I am thinking a potential 50-50 split but give the edge to Democrats to take control of this chamber.

US House - overspending, corruption, poor campaigning by Republicans give the clear edge to Democrats to regain this chamber. The revolution led by Newt Gingrich in 1994 is clearly over. Call U-Haul for more boxes!!!

Minnesota – US Senate: I see Democratic candidate, Amy Klobuchar winning over Republican, Congressman Mark Kennedy primarily due to his very poor TV ads. This is an easy prediction I admit since Amy is polling with 25% leads at times.

Minnesota – US House: I see all incumbents winning re-election and in the open seat where state Senator Michelle Bachman (Republican) is taking on Patty Wetterling (Democrat) I see Senator Bachman winning.

Minnesota – Governor: Things look very good for Democrat Attorney General Mike Hatch to finally win after his third run but I have to believe Minnesotans will come to their senses to return Governor Tim Pawlenty (Republican).

Minnesota - state senate: No change really. Democrats will keep a big majority of the seats.

Minnesota – state house: Democrats have a great chance to win control but I see the Republicans keeping control of this chamber.

Mayor -- my local city will re-elect our “Mayor Mary” primarily because she has a nice smile and her opponent was recently charged in a “road rage” incident which is not helpful with voters who live by the code of “Minnesota Nice” Bad boy!!

Don’t forget to vote,

Todd